Woody, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

948
FXUS66 KHNX 111753
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
255 AM PST Wed Dec 11 2024

.UPDATE...
Update to Aviation Section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. There is a 30 to 50 percent chance of nighttime and morning
fog, locally dense, across the San Joaquin Valley through
this morning.

2. High temperatures this week will remain near average for this
time of year. There is a 50 to 80 percent chance for morning low
temperatures below freezing this morning in the rural areas of
the southern San Joaquin Valley. A Freeze Warning is in effect
for this area for this morning as a result.

3. A storm system may impact the region Wednesday night through
Thursday afternoon. There is a 30 to 70 percent chance of two
inches or more of snow through the northern Sierra Nevada, with
isolated chances for up to 6-8 inches of snow at elevations 6000
feet and above. As such, a Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for the northern Sierra Nevada from 10pm PST Wednesday to
4pm PST Thursday.

4. A stronger storm system may impact the region this weekend
with a 40 to 80 percent chance of ten inches or more of snow
for the Sierra Nevada above 6000 feet from Friday night through
Sunday. There is a 35 to 75 percent probability of a quarter of
an inch of rainfall for the San Joaquin Valley from late Friday
night into early Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A strong wave over the Northeast Pacific is slamming into the
PacNW today and digs into California late tonight into Thursday
then progressively moving out into the Plains States as another
strong wave in the upper flow swings around the upper level low
in the North Pacific. This wave impacts the Golden state
starting on Friday and lasting through Sunday as it exits into
the southern Plains states. The train of troughs continues with
the next round late on Monday, impacting more of NorCal, then
crosses into the four corners region is gets cut off from the
upper flow. A short lived block forms with a ridge over
California yet again lasting into next Wednesday.

This morning the main issue remains being the dense fog. LAMP
and HREF probs again are going 40 to 60 probabilities of dense
fog in the favored locations along Highway 99 and rural areas of
the San Joaquin Valley in the lowest elevations. The advisory
will continue through 10 AM has probabilities drop off
significantly at that point in time.

Freezing temperatures, Freeze Warning in effect, early this
morning. Temperatures remain slightly above freezing and some
locations and around sunrise are expected to be below 32 for a
couple of hours. Will maintain the Freeze Warning through 8 AM.
The Wednesday night into Thursday system with the amount of
cloudiness shall keep temperatures above freezing with HREF
probabilities near zero for all of the San Joaquin Valley.

Wednesday through Thursday afternoon brings a California winter
weather event to the region to kick off the train of storms for
the weekend into next week. This first storm has a range of
probabilities at 6 inches or more from 10 to 40 percent above
6000 feet with Tioga Pass having the 40 percent probability.
The foothills and San Joaquin Valley looking at the probability
of exceedance of a tenth of an inch of rain ranges in the south
from Bakersfield to Visalia of 20 to 40 percent. North of
Visalia/Hanford line the probability increases to 40 to 60
percent for this first event. The Kern County Desert remains
with less than 15 percent chance.

Thursday night the wind picks up along the Mojave Slopes with a
probability of exceeding 55 mph increasing. The latest HREF
ensembles range from 40 to 85 percent with this current run that
is a jump from the last run. If the trend holds a High Wind
Watch or Wind Advisory may need to be considered later today.

Friday through Sunday with the next event in the series of
storms. The Atmospheric River is targeting more NorCal than the
Interior Central California with the highest IVT to the north of
the region. The low probability event is getting some traction
with the run-to-run ensemble changes with the troughs for the
weekend digging a little deeper with each run. This could bring
the AR a little further south and could impact the northern end
of the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Nevada north of Kings
Canyon. Rainfall amounts down in the San Joaquin Valley the
probability of exceeding a quarter of an inch from from 20 to 40
percent for the south-central valley for the Bakersfield-
Delano-Corcoran region. The West Side Hills wrapping into the
Merced-Madera-Fresno region probabilities increase to 55 to 75
percent for the three day total.

Monday into next Wednesday this system is somewhat weaker than
the weekend storm system. The threat of exceeding a quarter of
an inch of rain for the San Joaquin Valley falls to 15 to 35
percent with the northern end with the highest probability. The
probability of snow exceeding six inches over 6000 feet ranges
from 15 to 45 percent for the Sierra north of Kings Canyon. The
confidence is weakened with this event as the clusters are
having issues with the upper low over the four corners region
and how it evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update

IFR to LIFR conditions for KMCE, KFAT, KVIS to continue through at
least 19Z as fog lingers. After 19Z, IFR to MVFR possible, though
may not happen until 20Z. KBFL has risen from LIFR to IFR and will
continue to improve through the day.

High Sierra/Foothills north of Kings Canyon AFT 06Z will see
deteriorating conditions as precipitation moves into the
region.

Kern County Desert remains VFR for the 24 hour period.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  12/10/2024 14:36
EXPIRES: 12/11/2024 23:59
On Wednesday December 11 2024,  Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Fresno and Kern Counties.  Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is:
No Burning For All in Fresno and Kern Counties. No Burning Unless
Registered in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning
Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ301>307-
309>316.
Freeze Warning until 8 AM PST this morning for CAZ309-310.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
Thursday for CAZ323-326.
&&

$$

Products...Proton
DSS........EW

weather.gov/hanford